India unlikely to witness Covid-19 surge soon, hospitalisation fell considerably despite festive season: Report

Even as the recent surge in Covid-19 cases and deaths in the western world is concerning, India is unlikely to witness a similar trend, a detailed analysis by ‘Project: Jeevan Raksha’, a public-private initiative providing insights on the handling of the pandemic, indicated.

Explaining the trend to The Indian Express, Mysore Sanjeev, the convenor of the initiative, said that a drop of 72 per cent in insurance claims (non-government) for Covid-19 treatment was observed during October in comparison to that of September. “In September, there were 1.55 lakh claims, while it dropped to 0.41 lakh in October (across the country). This validates that in October, despite it being the festive season and limited restriction, Covid hospitalisation has dropped considerably,” he explained.

Further, a 60 per cent fall in insurance claims (non-government) for Covid-19 deaths in October, as opposed to those in September, has indicated the declining trend in fatalities linked to the pandemic as well. “In September, there were 4,074 death claims whereas, in October, it dropped to 1,688,” the report mentioned.

As per the nationwide projection made by the initiative operated by Proxima Consulting, India is estimated “to report 0.35 million new (Covid-19) cases between November 11 and December 10, only 2.3 per cent of the estimated 15 million global new Covid-19 cases.”

During the same timeframe, Kerala is projected to report most cases (around 2 lakh more) which will make up to 55 per cent of the total cases reported across the country. Kerala is also estimated to report nearly 1,200 more deaths which would be 35 per cent of all deaths reported across the country.

According to researchers behind the initiative, data scientists and analysts at Proxima had carried out a pilot analysis of worldwide Covid-19 data during the ongoing wave of the pandemic. “The projection, with an accuracy of 99 per cent of the actual numbers observed, is a major breakthrough in enhancing the preparedness of the administration to effectively manage the pandemic/epidemic,” a statement from ‘Project: Jeevan Raksha’ claimed.

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