Can the Opposition test BJP’s poll machine in 2024?

In terms of electoral politics, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah’s juggernaut continued its dominance, although a few cracks appeared, and regional issues kept power in Punjab and Himachal Pradesh away from the BJP. Election in Punjab in March against the backdrop of the massive farmer protests was a watershed moment for the state when a new political force—AAP—came to power, ousting the Congress, which was fighting its own internal battles.

The Congress saw a silver lining by the end of the year with its victory in Himachal Pradesh, although its near wipeout in Gujarat added to its long list of recent failures.

The year gone by witnessed multiple political upheavals. In one of the most thrilling political dramas of 2022, Maharasthra, which had in 2019 seen the Congress, Shiv Sena and NCP form an unexpected coalition government, witnessed a 10-day thriller in June leading to the Shiv Sena splitting.

As Uddhav Thackeray resigned as the chief minister of the ‘Maha Vikas Aghadi’ government, the BJP was again in the driver’s seat in the western state, with Eknath Shinde, leader of Shiv Sena’s breakaway faction, as the chief minister and the former chief minister Devendra Fadnavis as his deputy. The legal battle for the mantle of the “real” Shiv Sena is still under way in the Supreme Court.

In August, the country witnessed another realignment aimed at the next Lok Sabha elections, with the Bihar chief minister and JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar pulling the plug on the NDA alliance in the state and joining hands with Tejashwi Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). After pulling out of the alliance with the BJP, he has stepped up efforts to put together a united opposition to try and topple the Modi government at the Centre.

Also, K. Chandrashekar Rao, the chief minister of Telangana, recently changed the name of his party from Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) to Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) to give it a national flavour. Escalating the war of words against Modi, Rao, too, called upon opposition parties to join hands.

However, with a number of leaders having their own prime ministerial ambitions, questions remain over the viability of an umbrella alliance.

Sociologist and political analyst Prof. Anand Kumar is of the view that there is a political churn in the country.

“(Opposition) parties are trying to revive and reinvent themselves—the Congress, through its Bharat Jodo Yatra, and KCR and Nitish are trying to keep themselves relevant,” he said. He, however, added that among the opposition leaders, Mamata Banerjee, the Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal chief minister, is currently “silent” and that Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav “is not playing his cards well”.

With nine assembly elections in 2023 and the 2024 general election looming, the December elections, as a “quarter-final” for 2024, said much about the broad trends in Indian politics. Modi’s enduring popularity remains the BJP’s greatest asset. National politics remains very much unipolar with the BJP going strong, although issues such as inflation, unemployment and repeated Chinese incursions seem to be the chinks in the armour of the BJP-led NDA.

On the other hand, through the Bharat Jodo Yatra, led by Rahul Gandhi, the Congress party, apart from trying to strengthen the party’s mass connect, is also aiming to rejuvenate its cadre ahead of the general elections.

“The overwhelming response to the Bharat Jodo Yatra is making the BJP nervous because there’s a clearer narrative that the INC is offering. Their textbook does not have many chapters. The 3D politics of ‘distraction, diversion and divisiveness’ stands exposed,” said Congress leader Pawan Khera.

The BJP, however, seems unthreatened by the sporadic victories of the opposition parties. “One cannot look at these results and say that they are competitive to the BJP in any manner,” said Nalin Kohli of the BJP.

“AAP, starting from the UP elections, has on average lost anywhere between 90 and 100% of the seats it has contested. In Delhi, their vote share has come down while the BJP’s vote share has gone up. The difference between the Congress and the BJP vote share in Himachal Pradesh is less than 1%,” Kohli said.

There are a number of assembly polls scheduled for 2023, including in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka, which are set to further spice up the political scenario in the run-up to 2024.

Sanjay Kumar, co-director of Lokniti, a research programme at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), however, noted that assembly polls rarely are an indication of Lok Sabha polls.

The road to 2024 is long and lot of twists and turns are expected with the BJP present with its well-oiled election machinery and the Congress pinning its hopes on the Bharat Jodo Yatra and efforts to highlight issues such as unemployment and inflation.

(Subhash Narayan contributed to the story.)