Nifty 50 hits record high; can it top 23,000 in Feb? Here’s what 10 analysts say
Apart from positive global cues, experts observed that the pro-growth Interim Budget also influenced investors to buy quality stocks after the recent correction.
“The non-populist Budget focused on fiscal consolidation is a big positive. The big allocation for rural housing will benefit all construction-related segments like cement, steel, paints, etc. Another important budget takeaway is the sharp decline in bond yields consequent to the net market borrowing kept low at ₹11.75 trillion. This is beneficial for banks,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
The underlying market sentiment is positive; however, some volatility is expected in the near term ahead of the General Election in 2024. Mint talked to several analysts to gauge their perspectives on the anticipated Nifty levels by the end of February 2024. Here are their observations:
Shrikant Chouhan, Head-Equity Research, Kotak Securities
Today the Nifty 50 hit a new all-time high and formed a long bullish candle on the weekly chart, which is a positive sign.
Technically, the market’s medium-term structure is positive, but due to temporary overbought conditions, we may see rangebound activity in the near term.
For positional traders, 21,800 is a key support level.
The uptrend may continue further if it crosses 22,127, which could take the market up to 22,300/22,500 levels.
On the other hand, if the momentum below 21,800 weakens, the market may slip to 21,600 or 21,400 levels.
Santosh Meena Head of Research at Swastika Investmart
For a sustained upward momentum, the Nifty 50 must maintain the level of its all-time high, otherwise, it might revert to a sideways trend.
Should it successfully hold above 22,125, the next potential targets for the February series are identified at 22,500 and 22,700.
Conversely, on the downside, the range between 21,640 and 21,500 presents an immediate demand zone.
Further down, the key demand zone is situated between 21,200 and 20,800.
Rohan Shah, Technical Analyst, Religare Broking
It would be too early to comment as of now, as we have just started the month.
However, considering the price action, we believe 22,150 to act as an intermediate hurdle, and sustenance above this would trigger the next leg of up move towards 22,500 by the end of this month.
On the other hand, if Nifty fails to clear the mentioned hurdle, we would witness the index to consolidate in the broader range wherein 21,500 to act as a key support area for February month.
Avdhut Bagkar, Derivatives & Technical Analyst, StoxBox
The Nifty 50 index is seeking to overcome the selling pressure existing in the range of 21,850 -21,800 levels.
A decisive move over this range could propel the index towards a new historic peak of 21,350. On the weakness, the index may find support at the 21,500 and 21,400 levels.
Going forward, an aggressive break of 21,400 could dent the optimistic bias.
Until that happens, the trend is to buy on dips. Following a successive close over 21,850 may see bulls gearing up for the next leg of upside, and a new historic peak shall delve into a new buying impetus.
Rajesh Palviya, SVP – Technical and Derivatives Research, Axis Securities
With post-budget strong momentum, the Nifty 50 has decisively broken out of its 10-11 sessions’ consolidation range (21,800-21,200), indicating a strong comeback of bulls.
This consolidation range is also backed with a 50-day SMA support zone, which reconfirms bullish sentiments.
The overall short – to medium-term trend remains bullish, and any short-term corrections towards 21,800 levels remain a buying opportunity.
With the Jan’24 close of 21,725, the benchmark index has formed a “Doji” candlestick pattern on the monthly time frame, which signifies a short-term breather in the prior uptrend.
Hence, any sustainable upward move above 22,124 may gain strong momentum towards fresh highs.
The daily, weekly, and monthly strength indicator RSI is in positive terrain, which signals sustained and increased underlying strength.
As the overall sentiments continue to be bullish, we expect this buying momentum to extend towards 22,300-22,500-22,630 levels.
The short-term support zones are placed around 21,800-21,700-21,650 levels.
Riyank Arora Technical Analyst at Mehta Equities
If Nifty manages to close daily above 22,150, we can expect the rally to continue towards 22,400 and 22,500 levels by the end of February.
However, if there is any move below 21,900, that would be considered an immediate trend change.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities
The trend appears to be very positive after Nifty moved above the recent consolidation on the daily chart.
The indicators and overlays suggest a strongly positive trend in the short term.
On the higher end, the index might move towards 22,200-22,500. On the lower end, support is positioned at 21,700.
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Financial Services
We are already at a new high at the start of the month itself, discouraging us from chasing rallies right away, and retaining our upside objective of 22,450-22,550 for now.
However, we are open to the possibility of an extension of the uptrend to 22,750-23,500, should momentum persist.
We will, however, be weary of rejection trades once in the 22,400 vicinity, for which reason, the downside marker may be placed near 21,720 to protect from a potential deep dive to 20,800.
Shrey Jain, Founder and CEO of SAS Online
The Interim Budget indicated a path of fiscal prudence signaling better times ahead. A close above the previous high of 22,124 should open the doors for the target of 22,575.
20DEMA at 21,600 should act as a support. Traders should trail stop loss suitably.
Ongoing results announcements should lead to stock-specific movements. Bigger moves are possible in stocks in mid and small-cap space if the results surprise investors.
Shiju Koothupalakkal, Technical Research Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher
Nifty has been maintaining a good base near 21,500 for quite some time with 21,200 (50EMA level) as the major crucial support.
Currently, the index breaching above the important hurdle of 21,750 has further improved the bias and we can anticipate the next targets of 22,400 and 22,800 levels in the coming days.
By the end of February 2024, we can expect a target of 22,800 for Nifty with 21,500 as the important support zone.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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Published: 02 Feb 2024, 02:21 PM IST
