US Fed swaps fully price in quarter-point rate cut by year-end
Bond traders are quickly lowering their expectations for how high the Federal Reserve will push the borrowing costs — while also once again fully pricing in a rate cut from the peak level by year-end — as banking sector concerns mount.
Pricing on swaps linked to Fed meetings moved on Friday to suggest traders now expect that the central bank’s policy rate will peak at around 5.3% in July, but end the year around 5% — more than a quarter point lower. The target range was raised to 4.5%-4.75% on Feb. 1.
Meanwhile, the two-year Treasury yield was on track for its second-straight day with moves lower of more than 20 basis points. That yield fell as much as 29 basis points to 4.58%. Its current 44-basis-point drop over two days is bigger than any since 2008.
The collapse of SVB Financial, a Santa Clara, California-based bank holding company, has roiled financial markets since Thursday by stoking concern that higher interest rates are imperiling small lenders.
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